Today: UA 2250 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet today UA 2250 IAH 07:20 → SAT 08:27 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 5379 IAH 16:35 → SAT 17:44 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2250 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SAT 08:27	16%	4%	0.3%	92%
UA 1371 United Flight history →	IAH 09:30	SAT 10:37	21%	4%	0.3%	85%
UA 1819 United Flight history →	IAH 14:31	SAT 15:39	28%	8%	0.7%	76%
UA 2030 United	IAH 14:40	SAT 15:47	30%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1542 United Flight history →	IAH 20:05	SAT 21:13	33%	9%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
UA 2198 United Flight history →	IAH 21:40	SAT 22:42	33%	9%	0.7%	69%
UA 1477 United Flight history →	IAH 18:42	SAT 19:50	34%	9%	0.7%	74%
UA 5379 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 16:35	SAT 17:44	36%	9%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
UA 6201 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:39	SAT 10:46	10%	3%	1.4%	90%
UA 6202 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:08	SAT 13:17	24%	9%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON