Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 25–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 5395 IAH 21:40 → SHV 22:44 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest OO 5368 IAH 20:15 → SHV 21:23 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 5395 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 21:40	SHV 22:44	25%	11%	0.4%	74%
UA 5765 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 14:28	SHV 15:41	26%	11%	0.5%	76%
OO 5366 SkyWest	IAH 18:33	SHV 19:42	28%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 4682 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 19:50	SHV 21:03	28%	11%	0.5%	73%
UA 6026 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 16:10	SHV 17:21	28%	14%	0.5%	74%
UA 5396 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 18:06	SHV 19:19	30%	13%	0.5%	56%
OO 5368 SkyWest	IAH 20:15	SHV 21:23	30%	11%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON