tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1497 IAH 23:56 → SJU 05:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 1192 IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1497 United Flight history → IAH 23:56 SJU 05:29 15% 3% 0.7% 86%
UA 701 United Flight history → IAH 15:03 SJU 20:38 16% 4% 0.7% 91%
UA 1192 United Flight history → IAH 10:03 SJU 15:42 24% 4% 0.7% 79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:49 → MIA 09:22AA 2144 1h 17m Miami MIA 10:39 → SJU 13:26AA 1976 6h 37m 92% 76%
JetBlueDetails → IAH 07:24 → FLL 10:47B6 2380 1h 18m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:05 → SJU 14:42B6 1453 6h 18m 85% 62%
JetBlueDetails → IAH 13:00 → FLL 16:23B6 2780 1h 22m Fort Lauderdale FLL 17:45 → SJU 20:27B6 553 6h 27m 76% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON