Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1583 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1583 IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 2157 IAH 20:25 → SLC 22:43 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1583 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:35	SLC 09:48	11%	4%	0.5%	86%
UA 2242 United Flight history →	IAH 09:43	SLC 11:57	17%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 1532 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:21	SLC 16:33	18%	5%	0.5%	86%
UA 756 United Flight history →	IAH 09:45	SLC 11:59	18%	5%	0.6%	81%
DL 1299 Delta Flight history →	IAH 19:01	SLC 21:15	18%	6%	0.6%	79%
OO 5301 SkyWest	IAH 12:33	SLC 15:02	20%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 2157 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	SLC 22:43	22%	9%	0.6%	79%
UA 6207 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:25	SLC 16:40	20%	5%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON