Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:26 pm at Houston); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 1528 at 20:20, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 1528 United	IAH 20:20	STL 22:44	33%	10%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAH 19:27 → DFW 20:11AA 2438	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → STL 23:58AA 3049	4h 31m	77%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 19:27 → DFW 20:11AA 2438	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:02 → STL 23:54AA 1445	4h 27m	74%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON