Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5325 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 5325 IAH 07:26 → TUL 09:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 5745 IAH 18:34 → TUL 20:25 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5325 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 07:26	TUL 09:09	11%	4%	0.2%	92%
OO 5261 SkyWest	IAH 07:40	TUL 09:31	11%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 5413 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 11:55	TUL 13:36	22%	13%	0.7%	79%
UA 1927 United	IAH 20:05	TUL 21:56	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 5745 SkyWest	IAH 18:34	TUL 20:25	32%	16%	0.7%	no record
UA 6179 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 21:42	TUL 23:15	15%	4%	1.0%	85%
UA 6270 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	TUL 16:15	16%	8%	0.0%	84%
UA 4239 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:35	TUL 16:15	16%	4%	1.8%	84%
UA 6269 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 20:14	TUL 21:52	19%	5%	0.0%	81%
UA 3991 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:20	TUL 20:00	23%	8%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON