Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2155 IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 5666 IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2155 United Flight history →	IDA 14:30	DEN 16:18	24%	7%	0.1%	76%
UA 5551 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 17:54	DEN 19:45	28%	10%	0.5%	72%
UA 5666 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 16:14	DEN 18:05	31%	11%	0.4%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON