Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:37 pm at Idaho Falls); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5010 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 13:53	DFW 17:49	33%	14%	0.8%	60%
OO 4972 SkyWest	IDA 13:59	DFW 17:21	35%	14%	0.8%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IDA 15:22 → SLC 16:30DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796	5h 01m	95%	70%
United Details →	IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Denver	DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239	6h 45m	95%	66%
United Details →	IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155	2h 35m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 29m	91%	55%
Alaska Details →	IDA 14:18 → SEA 14:37AS 3027 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → DFW 23:48AS 542	8h 30m	100%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest	48m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	4h 45m	61%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON