Today: OO 3322 at 15:59 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–26%.

Safest bet today OO 3322 IDA 15:59 → PDX 16:52 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3421 IDA 16:14 → PDX 16:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3322 SkyWest	IDA 15:59	PDX 16:52	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
G4 3218 Allegiant	IDA 15:50	PDX 16:26	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 3421 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IDA 16:14	PDX 16:50	26%	6%	0.5%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON