tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:06 pm at Idaho Falls); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3489 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → IDA 13:43 SEA 14:48 33% 9% 0.4% 85%worse than usual
AS 3027 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → IDA 13:53 SEA 14:46 37% 9% 0.4% 81%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Idaho Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IDA 19:00 → SLC 20:09DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → SEA 23:59DL 2998 5h 59m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → IDA 13:01 → SLC 14:12DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 6h 32m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Denver DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651 7h 56m 95% 58%
UnitedDetails → IDA 14:30 → DEN 16:18UA 2155 3h 01m Denver DEN 19:19 → SEA 21:27UA 2767 7h 57m 91% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IDA 16:14 → DEN 18:05UA 5666 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 19:10 → SEA 21:10UA 360 5h 56m 71% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON