Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 376 ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 1292 ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 376 Delta Flight history →	ILM 10:29	ATL 12:01	18%	4%	0.5%	98%worse than usual
DL 731 Delta Flight history →	ILM 14:28	ATL 16:05	20%	5%	0.3%	74%
DL 1292 Delta Flight history →	ILM 18:48	ATL 20:35	20%	9%	0.9%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON