Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5604 ILM 12:50 → CLT 14:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2831 ILM 20:08 → CLT 21:16 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5604 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ILM 12:50	CLT 14:02	16%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 5416 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ILM 18:10	CLT 19:22	20%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 1531 American	ILM 14:42	CLT 15:51	21%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 1933 American Flight history →	ILM 20:01	CLT 21:16	21%	6%	0.6%	77%
AA 2831 American	ILM 20:08	CLT 21:16	23%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 5820 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 11:04	CLT 12:24	13%	2%	0.0%	87%
AA 5822 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 12:59	CLT 14:20	17%	12%	1.6%	83%
AA 5809 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 14:44	CLT 16:06	22%	10%	0.0%	78%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 18:06	CLT 19:29	32%	22%	1.4%	68%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 16:15	CLT 17:38	42%	21%	0.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON