Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:16 pm at Wilmington); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: MQ 4138 at 19:34 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops today


MQ 4138 Envoy	ILM 19:34	DCA 20:58	25%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 5229 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ILM 19:52	DCA 21:28	36%	15%	1.3%	44%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 04m	83%	58%
American Details →	ILM 18:28 → CLT 19:08AA 5416 · flown by PSA	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	5h 25m	100%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 20:01 → CLT 21:16AA 1933	1h 11m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	3h 52m	69%	35%
American Details →	ILM 18:28 → CLT 19:08AA 5416 · flown by PSA	1h 41m Charlotte	CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:15AA 2432	3h 47m	72%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON