Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:59 pm at Wilmington); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3708 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ILM 13:03	EWR 15:00	20%	5%	1.0%	87%
G7 4524 GoJet	ILM 13:41	EWR 15:09	28%	8%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ILM 15:41 → ORD 17:29UA 4699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	7h 58m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 10m	92%	68%
American Details →	ILM 15:25 → ORD 16:58AA 4009 · flown by Envoy	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → EWR 23:30AA 2549	8h 05m	97%	67%
Delta Details →	ILM 14:28 → ATL 16:05DL 731	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 26m	90%	60%
American Details →	ILM 13:21 → ORD 14:58AA 3811 · flown by Envoy	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00AA 3253	7h 39m	93%	59%
American Details →	ILM 13:09 → CLT 13:43AA 5604 · flown by PSA	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 16:43 → EWR 18:39AA 1811	5h 30m	95%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON