Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 3105 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 3105 IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 2498 IND 19:36 → ATL 21:36 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3105 Delta Flight history →	IND 05:55	ATL 07:30	6%	2%	0.9%	96%
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	IND 11:38	ATL 13:17	9%	3%	1.0%	95%
DL 3125 Delta Flight history →	IND 10:07	ATL 11:43	10%	2%	0.8%	96%
DL 3106 Delta Flight history →	IND 06:55	ATL 08:36	10%	2%	1.0%	92%
DL 1901 Delta Flight history →	IND 08:05	ATL 09:41	11%	2%	0.8%	96%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	IND 13:41	ATL 15:20	13%	4%	0.9%	87%
DL 3134 Delta Flight history →	IND 16:42	ATL 18:33	14%	4%	1.0%	87%
DL 3138 Delta Flight history →	IND 16:33	ATL 18:15	15%	3%	0.9%	67%
DL 2979 Delta Flight history →	IND 18:37	ATL 20:28	20%	4%	1.2%	86%
DL 3126 Delta Flight history →	IND 18:28	ATL 20:19	20%	4%	1.2%	83%
DL 3120 Delta Flight history →	IND 20:00	ATL 21:51	22%	4%	0.9%	82%
WN 2107 Southwest Flight history →	IND 16:05	ATL 17:40	22%	5%	0.6%	54%
WN 2149 Southwest	IND 18:45	ATL 20:36	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 2498 Frontier Flight history →	IND 19:36	ATL 21:36	44%	12%	0.9%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON