Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:55 am at Indianapolis); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: DL 4101 at 11:34, 30%.

Safest bet today DL 4101 IND 11:34 → AUS 13:13 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2110 IND 16:45 → AUS 18:15 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 4101 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 11:34	AUS 13:13	30%	8%	0.5%	90%worse than usual
WN 2109 Southwest Flight history →	IND 12:45	AUS 14:10	31%	5%	0.2%	79%worse than usual
WN 3071 Southwest	IND 14:45	AUS 16:36	33%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 343 Southwest	IND 21:50	AUS 23:32	36%	11%	0.2%	no record
DL 4027 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 18:30	AUS 20:14	40%	16%	0.4%	81%worse than usual
WN 2110 Southwest Flight history →	IND 16:45	AUS 18:15	43%	7%	0.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON