Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2159 IND 05:40 → BWI 07:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 715 IND 15:10 → BWI 16:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2159 Southwest	IND 05:40	BWI 07:25	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2113 Southwest Flight history →	IND 05:40	BWI 07:15	5%	1%	0.6%	91%
WN 349 Southwest	IND 10:00	BWI 11:45	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 313 Southwest Flight history →	IND 10:15	BWI 11:55	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 4536 Southwest Flight history →	IND 16:40	BWI 18:25	12%	4%	0.5%	78%
WN 4388 Southwest Flight history →	IND 13:15	BWI 14:50	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 715 Southwest	IND 15:10	BWI 16:55	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON