Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2615 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2615 IND 09:40 → CLT 11:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1536 IND 19:56 → CLT 21:33 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2615 American Flight history →	IND 09:40	CLT 11:24	14%	4%	1.3%	93%
AA 1944 American Flight history →	IND 11:28	CLT 13:13	14%	4%	1.3%	92%
AA 2938 American Flight history →	IND 06:42	CLT 08:25	15%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 346 American Flight history →	IND 08:05	CLT 09:52	16%	3%	0.5%	91%
AA 3044 American Flight history →	IND 14:04	CLT 15:44	18%	4%	1.2%	89%
AA 817 American	IND 10:51	CLT 12:28	18%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 1950 American Flight history →	IND 15:30	CLT 17:20	21%	4%	1.2%	64%
AA 1589 American Flight history →	IND 15:57	CLT 17:34	23%	5%	1.2%	79%
AA 1939 American Flight history →	IND 19:44	CLT 21:30	33%	5%	1.2%	63%
AA 1536 American	IND 19:56	CLT 21:33	37%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON