Today: WN 3012 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet today WN 3012 IND 06:35 → DAL 07:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2343 IND 18:45 → DAL 20:07 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3012 Southwest Flight history →	IND 06:35	DAL 07:45	4%	1%	0.4%	92%
WN 2161 Southwest	IND 07:15	DAL 08:39	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 198 Southwest Flight history →	IND 20:25	DAL 21:35	19%	6%	0.5%	46%
WN 2343 Southwest	IND 18:45	DAL 20:07	20%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON