Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:54 pm at Indianapolis); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: MQ 4141 at 15:06 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet today MQ 4141 IND 15:06 → DCA 16:47 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4707 IND 17:46 → DCA 19:48 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 4141 Envoy	IND 15:06	DCA 16:47	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 4452 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:07	DCA 19:09	24%	9%	0.5%	71%
AA 4433 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 21:13	DCA 22:59	25%	8%	0.5%	62%
AA 4593 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 20:23	DCA 22:17	25%	8%	0.5%	72%
AA 4707 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:46	DCA 19:48	26%	9%	0.4%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON