Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:12 am at Indianapolis); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Today: UA 1607 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet today UA 1607 IND 08:00 → DEN 08:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 2347 IND 20:53 → DEN 21:48 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1607 United Flight history →	IND 08:00	DEN 08:51	7%	3%	0.1%	84%
WN 2580 Southwest	IND 09:56	DEN 10:44	8%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 2118 Southwest Flight history →	IND 09:35	DEN 10:15	10%	1%	0.1%	94%
WN 2119 Southwest Flight history →	IND 13:10	DEN 13:50	11%	2%	0.1%	79%
WN 2165 Southwest	IND 14:40	DEN 15:26	11%	3%	0.1%	no record
UA 2821 United Flight history →	IND 15:37	DEN 16:28	12%	4%	0.1%	76%
UA 377 United Flight history →	IND 15:31	DEN 16:18	12%	4%	0.1%	85%
WN 4826 Southwest Flight history →	IND 14:55	DEN 15:35	13%	3%	0.1%	72%
WN 1064 Southwest Flight history →	IND 19:15	DEN 20:05	19%	4%	0.5%	53%
WN 3738 Southwest	IND 18:45	DEN 19:30	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 2345 Frontier Flight history →	IND 16:02	DEN 16:58	20%	8%	0.4%	79%
UA 1229 United	IND 18:51	DEN 19:38	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 2347 Frontier Flight history →	IND 20:53	DEN 21:48	23%	6%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON