Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2782 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2782 IND 06:01 → DFW 07:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3312 IND 17:18 → DFW 18:49 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2782 American Flight history →	IND 06:01	DFW 07:35	11%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 1506 American Flight history →	IND 11:23	DFW 12:56	16%	7%	0.9%	85%
AA 1296 American Flight history →	IND 07:20	DFW 08:50	17%	6%	0.8%	85%
AA 1948 American Flight history →	IND 11:05	DFW 12:27	19%	6%	0.9%	73%
F9 3203 Frontier Flight history →	IND 22:00	DFW 23:23	23%	11%	0.8%	75%
AA 500 American	IND 14:20	DFW 15:51	23%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 1955 American Flight history →	IND 13:36	DFW 15:03	24%	8%	0.9%	79%
AA 1945 American Flight history →	IND 20:19	DFW 21:44	30%	8%	0.9%	58%
AA 1956 American Flight history →	IND 17:23	DFW 18:55	30%	9%	0.9%	64%
AA 3312 American	IND 17:18	DFW 18:49	33%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON