Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:52 am at Indianapolis); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5846 IND 16:00 → DTW 17:20 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3879 IND 14:18 → DTW 15:36 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5846 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 16:00	DTW 17:20	14%	4%	0.1%	92%
YX 5659 Republic	IND 17:11	DTW 18:31	15%	4%	0.1%	no record
DL 5827 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:30	DTW 18:51	15%	4%	0.1%	82%
DL 3879 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 14:18	DTW 15:36	20%	10%	0.2%	78%
DL 5034 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 19:36	DTW 20:55	28%	15%	1.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON