Today: WN 370 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–26%.

Safest bet today WN 370 IND 05:30 → FLL 08:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest G4 3485 IND 11:02 → FLL 13:44 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 370 Southwest Flight history →	IND 05:30	FLL 08:10	3%	1%	0.2%	100%
WN 1540 Southwest	IND 15:45	FLL 18:28	17%	5%	0.4%	no record
G4 602 Allegiant Flight history →	IND 08:30	FLL 11:15	17%	9%	0.8%	100%worse than usual
G4 627 Allegiant	IND 14:52	FLL 17:33	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
G4 3485 Allegiant Flight history →	IND 11:02	FLL 13:44	26%	11%	0.8%	95%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON