Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3709 IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 3445 IND 19:42 → IAD 21:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3709 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 10:11	IAD 11:55	8%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 3530 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 14:48	IAD 16:32	10%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 3445 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 19:42	IAD 21:30	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 3997 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IND 05:35	IAD 07:19	3%	3%	0.0%	97%
UA 6210 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IND 05:35	IAD 07:19	7%	2%	0.0%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON