Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2358 IND 07:00 → IAH 08:28 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1420 IND 17:26 → IAH 19:08 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2358 United Flight history →	IND 07:00	IAH 08:28	19%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 1420 United Flight history →	IND 17:26	IAH 19:08	21%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 3989 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IND 11:50	IAH 13:25	12%	5%	0.4%	88%
UA 6223 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IND 09:25	IAH 11:02	16%	12%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON