tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:06 am at Indianapolis)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: WN 4013 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18%.

Safest bet today WN 4013 IND 06:35 → LAS 07:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2126 IND 13:00 → LAS 13:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time
Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 4013 Southwest IND 06:35 LAS 07:39 4% 1% 0.1% no record
WN 2125 Southwest Flight history → IND 07:15 LAS 08:10 7% 1% 0.1% 93%
WN 4529 Southwest IND 10:35 LAS 11:37 11% 2% 0.1% no record
WN 2260 Southwest IND 15:41 LAS 16:43 15% 4% 0.4% no record
WN 4753 Southwest Flight history → IND 20:00 LAS 20:55 18% 4% 0.5% 77%
WN 3184 Southwest Flight history → IND 16:20 LAS 17:15 18% 4% 0.5% 73%
WN 2173 Southwest IND 20:25 LAS 21:22 18% 4% 0.5% no record
WN 2126 Southwest Flight history → IND 13:00 LAS 13:55 18% 5% 0.1% 81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:56 → DEN 07:44WN 2787 46m Denver DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024 5h 29m 91% 82%
SouthwestDetails → IND 13:45 → MCI 14:15WN 4887 1h 15m Kansas City MCI 15:30 → LAS 16:35WN 2286 5h 50m 92% 80%
SouthwestDetails → IND 06:10 → DEN 06:50WN 1365 50m Denver DEN 07:40 → LAS 08:35WN 1559 5h 25m 81% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON