Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:10 am at Indianapolis); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 41% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 861 Delta Flight history →	IND 17:25	LAX 18:45	20%	5%	0.1%	87%
AA 3201 American Flight history →	IND 16:21	LAX 17:45	28%	6%	0.2%	83%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IND 07:28 → ORD 07:09UA 3483 · flown by Republic	1h 39m Chicago	ORD 08:48 → LAX 11:26UA 2814	6h 58m	98%	84%
United Details →	IND 08:00 → DEN 08:51UA 1607	2h 54m Denver	DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013	8h 17m	99%	83%
United Details →	IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689	8h 31m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 32m	99%	81%
United Details →	IND 08:00 → ORD 08:22UA 3539 · flown by Republic	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 10:46 → LAX 13:17UA 2170	8h 17m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	IND 13:41 → ATL 15:20DL 3013	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 18:51 → LAX 20:37DL 996	9h 56m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	IND 16:16 → MSP 17:10DL 2912	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 18:59 → LAX 20:51DL 2122	7h 35m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	IND 16:00 → DTW 17:20DL 5846 · flown by Republic	3h 39m Detroit	DTW 20:59 → LAX 22:46DL 694	9h 46m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 18:40 → MIA 21:28AA 926	52m Miami	MIA 22:20 → LAX 00:48 +1AA 669	9h 08m	54%	40%
American Details →	IND 19:11 → PHX 19:49AA 3078	49m Phoenix	PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204	5h 56m	57%	34%
Southwest Details →	IND 16:45 → AUS 18:15WN 2110	46m Austin	AUS 19:01 → LAX 20:14WN 384	6h 29m	41%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON