Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 23%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5737 at 06:09, 7%.

Safest bet that day DL 5737 IND 06:09 → LGA 08:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 5646 IND 17:55 → LGA 20:11 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Weather 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5737 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:09	LGA 08:23	7%	3%	0.5%	92%
DL 5771 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:10	LGA 08:15	7%	2%	0.5%	96%
AA 4797 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:20	LGA 08:30	8%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 5660 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:05	LGA 10:12	9%	3%	0.5%	87%
AA 4365 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:31	LGA 10:45	9%	3%	0.5%	100%
AA 4357 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:50	LGA 11:00	10%	3%	0.5%	84%
AA 4565 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 12:27	LGA 14:48	25%	6%	0.7%	83%
AA 4601 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 12:23	LGA 14:33	28%	6%	0.7%	71%
DL 5642 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 14:46	LGA 16:57	40%	8%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
YX 4409 Republic	IND 17:34	LGA 19:48	41%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 4437 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:27	LGA 19:39	42%	8%	0.8%	67%
DL 5646 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:55	LGA 20:11	44%	9%	0.8%	72%worse than usual
DL 4883 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	IND 11:10	LGA 13:14	24%	4%	6.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON