Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:29 am at Indianapolis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2174 Southwest	IND 15:00	MCI 15:43	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4887 Southwest Flight history →	IND 13:45	MCI 14:15	11%	3%	0.5%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 06:10 → DEN 06:50WN 1365	1h 25m Denver	DEN 08:15 → MCI 11:00WN 1362	5h 50m	96%	90%
Southwest Details →	IND 05:20 → HOU 06:45WN 4645	1h 15m Houston	HOU 08:00 → MCI 10:01WN 4603	5h 41m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:45 → MDW 06:55WN 2133	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 09:50 → MCI 11:24WN 2913	5h 39m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:56 → DEN 07:44WN 2787	2h 16m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MCI 12:45WN 3114	6h 49m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	IND 05:40 → BWI 07:15WN 2113	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 08:20 → MCI 10:05WN 4215	5h 25m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	IND 07:00 → BNA 07:10WN 2111	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 08:10 → MCI 10:01WN 606	4h 01m	96%	85%
Southwest Details →	IND 05:10 → MCO 07:25WN 2129	1h 40m Orlando	MCO 09:05 → MCI 10:55WN 989	6h 45m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 09:57 → MCI 11:29DL 1349	5h 29m	98%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 20:19 → DFW 21:44AA 1945	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036	5h 04m	70%	46%
Southwest Details →	IND 18:45 → MCO 21:10WN 4537	1h 00m Orlando	MCO 22:10 → MCI 00:08 +1WN 2741	6h 23m	74%	42%
American Details →	IND 13:36 → DFW 15:03AA 1955	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:50 → MCI 17:27AA 922	4h 51m	61%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON