Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2175 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 2175 IND 05:10 → MCO 07:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1540 IND 18:32 → MCO 21:02 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2175 Southwest	IND 05:10	MCO 07:29	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2129 Southwest Flight history →	IND 05:10	MCO 07:25	4%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 2176 Southwest	IND 08:15	MCO 10:34	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2130 Southwest Flight history →	IND 09:10	MCO 11:25	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 2699 Southwest	IND 12:20	MCO 14:40	14%	7%	0.9%	no record
F9 3762 Frontier Flight history →	IND 11:17	MCO 13:44	15%	8%	1.3%	84%
F9 4454 Frontier Flight history →	IND 10:53	MCO 13:19	16%	8%	1.2%	85%
WN 121 Southwest Flight history →	IND 21:20	MCO 23:45	20%	10%	1.0%	50%
WN 4537 Southwest Flight history →	IND 18:45	MCO 21:10	25%	12%	1.2%	70%
WN 351 Southwest	IND 15:55	MCO 18:15	27%	12%	1.2%	no record
WN 3271 Southwest Flight history →	IND 16:10	MCO 18:40	27%	12%	1.2%	71%
F9 1540 Frontier Flight history →	IND 18:32	MCO 21:02	38%	16%	2.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON