Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:38 am at Indianapolis); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2182 Southwest	IND 17:55	MDW 18:06	21%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 961 Southwest Flight history →	IND 17:40	MDW 17:55	21%	4%	0.2%	87%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	IND 10:15 → BWI 11:55WN 313	2h 40m Baltimore	BWI 14:35 → MDW 15:51WN 1072	6h 36m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	IND 13:10 → DEN 13:50WN 2119	2h 00m Denver	DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603	7h 05m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	IND 13:45 → MCI 14:15WN 4887	1h 55m Kansas City	MCI 16:10 → MDW 17:47WN 2063	5h 02m	96%	81%
Southwest Details →	IND 13:15 → BWI 14:50WN 4388	1h 15m Baltimore	BWI 16:05 → MDW 17:10WN 997	4h 55m	94%	79%
Southwest Details →	IND 14:55 → DEN 15:35WN 4826	2h 00m Denver	DEN 17:35 → MDW 21:00WN 1604	7h 05m	97%	76%
Southwest Details →	IND 19:30 → BNA 19:40WN 1332	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 22:25 → MDW 00:11 +1WN 4548	5h 41m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 08m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	IND 16:42 → ATL 18:33DL 3134	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 33m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	IND 16:10 → MCO 18:40WN 3271	55m Orlando	MCO 19:35 → MDW 21:25WN 2660	6h 15m	70%	40%
Delta Details →	IND 18:37 → ATL 20:28DL 2979	47m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	4h 38m	51%	39%
Southwest Details →	IND 19:25 → TPA 21:40WN 2140	50m Tampa	TPA 22:30 → MDW 00:10 +1WN 4035	5h 45m	53%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON