Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:51 am at Indianapolis); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: YX 4796 at 12:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet today YX 4796 IND 12:40 → PHL 14:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3015 IND 19:09 → PHL 21:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4796 Republic	IND 12:40	PHL 14:50	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 4518 Republic	IND 18:11	PHL 20:19	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 13:36	PHL 15:32	23%	9%	1.9%	81%
AA 5209 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 10:58	PHL 12:56	26%	8%	1.9%	64%
AA 5592 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IND 16:49	PHL 18:49	31%	9%	2.1%	69%
AA 1957 American Flight history →	IND 19:10	PHL 21:09	31%	8%	0.6%	69%
AA 3015 American Flight history →	IND 19:09	PHL 21:10	33%	8%	0.6%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON