Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:04 am at Indianapolis); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1518 IND 11:50 → RSW 14:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1441 IND 21:00 → RSW 23:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 1518 Southwest	IND 11:50	RSW 14:26	13%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 2137 Southwest Flight history →	IND 13:40	RSW 16:05	15%	4%	0.3%	73%
WN 1441 Southwest	IND 21:00	RSW 23:34	19%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON