Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:27 am at Indianapolis); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 09:35, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 2799 United Flight history →	IND 19:59	SFO 21:47	35%	9%	0.2%	22%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IND 18:33 → ORD 19:00UA 5435 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106	8h 59m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 19:27 → MSP 20:20DL 1456	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089	7h 19m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	IND 18:37 → ATL 20:28DL 2979	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	8h 59m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	IND 16:00 → DTW 17:20DL 5846 · flown by Republic	3h 17m Detroit	DTW 20:37 → SFO 22:35DL 1327	9h 35m	100%	78%
United Details →	IND 17:26 → IAH 19:08UA 1420	2h 51m Houston	IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609	9h 39m	95%	77%
United Details →	IND 13:35 → ORD 13:57UA 5419 · flown by SkyWest	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 15:57 → SFO 18:49UA 2251	8h 14m	96%	75%
United Details →	IND 10:45 → ORD 11:05UA 3534 · flown by Republic	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → SFO 17:19UA 1577	9h 34m	99%	75%
American Details →	IND 10:35 → ORD 11:00AA 4443 · flown by Republic	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 13:33 → SFO 16:32AA 2253	8h 57m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 19:51 → ORD 20:29AA 1951	48m Chicago	ORD 21:17 → SFO 23:59AA 3054	7h 08m	63%	48%
Southwest Details →	IND 21:15 → PHX 22:00WN 2136	50m Phoenix	PHX 22:50 → SFO 00:55 +1WN 1098	6h 40m	69%	48%
United Details →	IND 16:05 → EWR 18:34UA 3667 · flown by Republic	46m Newark	EWR 19:20 → SFO 22:59UA 1558	9h 54m	71%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON