Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:56 am at Indianapolis); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2192 at 14:05, 26%.

Safest bet today WN 2192 IND 14:05 → TPA 16:34 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2140 IND 19:25 → TPA 21:40 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2192 Southwest	IND 14:05	TPA 16:34	26%	8%	0.4%	no record
WN 3362 Southwest	IND 20:50	TPA 23:19	36%	11%	0.3%	no record
WN 2140 Southwest Flight history →	IND 19:25	TPA 21:40	45%	10%	0.3%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON