Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4595 at 11:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 4595 ISP 11:01 → BWI 12:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2145 ISP 17:50 → BWI 19:05 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4595 Southwest	ISP 11:01	BWI 12:27	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2141 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 06:00	BWI 07:15	5%	1%	0.6%	91%
WN 2194 Southwest	ISP 06:00	BWI 07:26	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4584 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 09:10	BWI 10:25	7%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 2143 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 12:30	BWI 13:45	8%	2%	0.7%	79%
WN 3449 Southwest	ISP 15:11	BWI 16:37	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 921 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 15:05	BWI 16:20	14%	3%	0.7%	76%
WN 2817 Southwest	ISP 17:41	BWI 19:07	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2145 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 17:50	BWI 19:05	17%	6%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON