Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:59 pm at Islip); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via BWI, leaving 15:05, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ISP 15:05 → BWI 16:20WN 921	3h 55m Baltimore	BWI 20:15 → FLL 22:55WN 3072	7h 50m	98%	74%
Southwest Details →	ISP 17:50 → BWI 19:05WN 2145	1h 25m Baltimore	BWI 20:30 → FLL 23:12WN 2293	5h 22m	86%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ISP 18:05 → MCO 21:00WN 104	55m Orlando	MCO 21:55 → FLL 23:07WN 2647	5h 02m	60%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON