Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: F9 3941 at 10:57, 36%.

Safest bet today F9 3941 ISP 10:57 → MCO 13:50 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest F9 2149 ISP 17:44 → MCO 20:45 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Weather 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


F9 3941 Frontier Flight history →	ISP 10:57	MCO 13:50	36%	13%	2.7%	77%worse than usual
WN 104 Southwest Flight history →	ISP 18:05	MCO 21:00	42%	12%	1.0%	58%
WN 2198 Southwest	ISP 19:10	MCO 22:01	42%	13%	1.0%	no record
B6 847 JetBlue Flight history →	ISP 16:48	MCO 19:44	46%	19%	1.2%	64%worse than usual
B6 547 JetBlue Flight history →	ISP 16:24	MCO 19:20	47%	18%	1.1%	77%worse than usual
F9 2149 Frontier Flight history →	ISP 17:44	MCO 20:45	52%	22%	4.3%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON