Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:50 am at Islip)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via BWI, leaving 09:10, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ISP 09:10 → BWI 10:25WN 4584	3h 26m Baltimore	BWI 13:51 → MYR 15:33WN 1101	6h 23m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	ISP 15:05 → BWI 16:20WN 921	3h 41m Baltimore	BWI 20:01 → MYR 21:42WN 330	6h 37m	96%	74%
Southwest Details →	ISP 12:30 → BWI 13:45WN 2143	3h 20m Baltimore	BWI 17:05 → MYR 18:35WN 4367	6h 05m	99%	72%
Southwest Details →	ISP 17:50 → BWI 19:05WN 2145	1h 05m Baltimore	BWI 20:10 → MYR 21:45WN 4220	3h 55m	82%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ISP 17:50 → BWI 19:05WN 2145	56m Baltimore	BWI 20:01 → MYR 21:42WN 330	3h 52m	73%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON