Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 20–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1717 JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 531 JAC 16:23 → DEN 18:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1717 United Flight history →	JAC 13:42	DEN 15:18	20%	7%	0.2%	80%
UA 2791 United Flight history →	JAC 14:44	DEN 16:21	21%	6%	0.2%	65%
UA 2132 United	JAC 16:21	DEN 17:54	22%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 531 United Flight history →	JAC 16:23	DEN 18:00	25%	6%	0.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON