Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1923 JAC 11:50 → DFW 15:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 883 JAC 16:15 → DFW 20:09 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1923 American Flight history →	JAC 11:50	DFW 15:45	28%	7%	0.6%	72%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	JAC 12:49	DFW 16:45	29%	9%	0.6%	67%
AA 883 American Flight history →	JAC 16:15	DFW 20:09	31%	9%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON