Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:16 pm at Jackson); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: AA 6471 at 18:12, 31%.

Nonstops today


AA 6471 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 18:12	LAX 19:37	31%	12%	0.3%	87%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 18:05 → SLC 19:15DL 417	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197	6h 37m	97%	79%
United Details →	JAC 16:23 → DEN 18:00UA 531	3h 20m Denver	DEN 21:20 → LAX 22:55UA 531	7h 32m	97%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON