tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:05 pm at Jackson); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 18:05, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAC 18:05 → SLC 19:15DL 417 2h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 21:17 → MSP 00:53 +1DL 8803 5h 48m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → JAC 15:39 → ORD 20:07AA 3282 2h 29m Chicago ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic 7h 43m 88% 78%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 6h 39m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 3h 27m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076 7h 08m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → JAC 12:33 → ORD 16:43UA 2357 3h 14m Chicago ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005 8h 08m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → JAC 16:23 → DEN 18:00UA 531 2h 54m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 6h 36m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → JAC 12:49 → DFW 16:45AA 2956 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806 7h 32m 83% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JAC 16:15 → DFW 20:09AA 883 1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149 6h 42m 68% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON