Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:09 am at Jackson)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: AS 3363 at 12:00, 31%.

Nonstops today


AS 3363 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 12:00	SEA 13:22	31%	16%	0.4%	88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 18:05 → SLC 19:15DL 417	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SEA 23:59DL 2998	6h 54m	98%	74%
United Details →	JAC 10:35 → DEN 12:13UA 2170	3h 45m Denver	DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013	8h 24m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282	2h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	6h 18m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817	6h 00m	100%	70%
United Details →	JAC 16:23 → DEN 18:00UA 531	3h 10m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10UA 2651	7h 47m	97%	65%
United Details →	JAC 10:49 → DEN 12:48UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Denver	DEN 14:08 → SEA 16:12UA 2833	6h 23m	93%	63%
Alaska Details →	JAC 13:11 → SFO 14:49AS 3208 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m San Francisco	SFO 17:38 → SEA 19:39AS 1340	7h 28m	99%	57%
United Details →	JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791	2h 58m Denver	DEN 19:19 → SEA 21:25UA 2767	7h 41m	96%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JAC 11:50 → DFW 15:45AA 1923	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:53 → SEA 19:11AA 2009	8h 21m	75%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON