Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2241 JAC 17:30 → SFO 18:49 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3208 JAC 13:11 → SFO 14:49 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2241 United	JAC 17:30	SFO 18:49	20%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 336 United Flight history →	JAC 08:00	SFO 09:26	24%	9%	0.3%	15%
AS 3208 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAC 13:11	SFO 14:49	25%	8%	0.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON