Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:39 pm at Jackson); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 417 Delta Flight history →	JAC 18:05	SLC 19:15	20%	7%	0.2%	89%
DL 509 Delta	JAC 17:52	SLC 18:56	21%	8%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791	3h 02m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	6h 12m	93%	63%
United Details →	JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717	2h 27m Denver	DEN 17:45 → SLC 19:25UA 5762 · flown by SkyWest	5h 43m	91%	61%
United Details →	JAC 16:23 → DEN 18:00UA 531	3h 05m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	6h 21m	95%	60%
American Details →	JAC 16:15 → DFW 20:09AA 883	2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378	8h 21m	83%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	JAC 16:23 → DEN 18:00UA 531	1h 23m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	4h 33m	74%	51%
American Details →	JAC 15:39 → ORD 20:07AA 3282	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 21:18 → SLC 23:44AA 2545	8h 05m	67%	43%
American Details →	JAC 16:15 → DFW 20:09AA 883	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → SLC 22:59AA 2993	6h 44m	53%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON