Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2722 at 05:30, 9%.

Safest bet that day DL 2722 JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3083 JAX 20:03 → ATL 21:31 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2722 Delta Flight history →	JAX 05:30	ATL 06:42	9%	4%	1.1%	93%
DL 2326 Delta Flight history →	JAX 10:41	ATL 11:54	17%	6%	1.8%	89%
DL 2356 Delta Flight history →	JAX 11:48	ATL 13:04	20%	5%	1.3%	94%worse than usual
DL 2328 Delta Flight history →	JAX 09:41	ATL 10:54	21%	4%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
DL 2450 Delta Flight history →	JAX 07:00	ATL 08:15	23%	6%	0.9%	92%worse than usual
DL 2569 Delta Flight history →	JAX 08:17	ATL 09:34	24%	4%	1.1%	91%worse than usual
DL 2923 Delta Flight history →	JAX 13:05	ATL 14:15	27%	6%	1.3%	85%worse than usual
DL 3024 Delta Flight history →	JAX 14:50	ATL 16:06	29%	6%	1.3%	82%worse than usual
DL 2990 Delta Flight history →	JAX 16:14	ATL 17:32	30%	6%	1.6%	80%
DL 2720 Delta Flight history →	JAX 17:32	ATL 18:49	32%	7%	1.8%	79%worse than usual
DL 2189 Delta Flight history →	JAX 20:18	ATL 21:42	33%	6%	1.3%	70%
DL 2440 Delta Flight history →	JAX 18:54	ATL 20:11	37%	7%	1.8%	94%worse than usual
DL 2627 Delta Flight history →	JAX 19:02	ATL 20:19	38%	7%	1.8%	79%worse than usual
F9 3083 Frontier Flight history →	JAX 20:03	ATL 21:31	58%	17%	2.1%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON