Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5632 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 5632 JAX 06:45 → BOS 09:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 810 JAX 19:05 → BOS 21:49 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5632 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 06:45	BOS 09:34	11%	8%	1.0%	92%
DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 12:24	BOS 15:15	19%	9%	1.0%	77%
B6 1310 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 10:46	BOS 13:26	22%	9%	1.0%	73%
DL 5657 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 19:25	BOS 22:22	22%	12%	1.2%	73%
B6 810 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 19:05	BOS 21:49	39%	22%	2.1%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON