Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:39 pm at Jacksonville); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 548 at 15:00, 29%.

Safest bet today WN 548 JAX 15:00 → BWI 17:07 · 29% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2158 JAX 14:15 → BWI 16:10 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 548 Southwest	JAX 15:00	BWI 17:07	29%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2001 Southwest	JAX 19:35	BWI 21:41	31%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2159 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 19:30	BWI 21:25	32%	7%	0.6%	47%
WN 2158 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 14:15	BWI 16:10	32%	5%	0.6%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON